Alberta Faces Another Round of Snow, With up to 20cm Possible as Parts of Saskatchewan See Their First Snowfall of the Season

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It’s only been a few days since we saw our first widespread snowfall event of the season, which brought heavy wet snow to much of Alberta and across Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but there is more snow on the way this week for Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan will see their first snowfall of the season.

We have already begun to see some rain mixed with a bit of snow moving into Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan this morning from south of the border. Scattered areas of rain and snow will gradually spread across Saskatchewan through the afternoon. At the same time, areas of snowfall will develop through the Rockies and across the southern portions of Northern Alberta, possibly extending as far south as into the Edmonton area.

As temperatures fall through the evening and overnight, the rain will switch over to snow and at the same time, the snowfall rates will increase, which could make the drive home from work a bit more challenging, especially for those who have yet to put on their winter tires.

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The hrdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 9pm on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The snow will continue to fall through most of the day Wednesday, also briefly spreading into parts of Central and Southern Alberta, including Calgary, before it starts to taper off in the afternoon and comes to an end Thursday morning.

Overall, most of those in Saskatchewan seeing their first snowfall of the season will see less than 5cm, while parts of the Northwest, including North Battleford, could see upwards of 10cm by Thursday afternoon. In Alberta, the majority of Central and Southern Alberta will also receive less than 5cm of snow, but accumulations increase to 5-10cm moving northward and into Northern Alberta.

There are two areas of the province where upwards of 20cm of snow could fall: through the Rockies and in an area that extends from northeast of Edmonton to south of Fort McMurray. These two areas are were steady snow is expected to fall the longest, without the presence of rain mixed in.

The good news about this system is that the snow is not expected to be as wet and heavy as what we saw on the weekend, so sagging trees and powerlines won’t be a concern.

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Widespread Dusting of Snow Possible Across Alberta, Greater Accumulations in the Northeast, By Sunday

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The stretch of pleasant weather we’ve been seeing this week will be interrupted by the return of snow for a majority of Alberta as the week comes to an end and we move into the weekend. This will be courtesy of a cold front that will track through the province from the north, bringing with it a shock of cold Arctic air, a widespread combination of rain and snow, and some strong wind gusts.

Precipitation will begin to fall later this evening, starting in the Northern Rockies, but gradually expanding through the mountain parks overnight. This precipitation will predominantly fall as snow through the Rockies, but as it progresses eastward, a leading edge of rain will develop, which will then quickly transition over to wet snow as the system tracks from west to east.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6am on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

This switch over is slated to occur around the morning rush hour in Calgary, Edmonton, and along the QE2 corridor, resulting in a brief blast of snow that could greatly reduce visibility for commuters. Luckily, the warm ground means that most of this snow will melt on contact and only a couple of centimetres of accumulation. The mixture of rain and snow will track eastward across the province through the day, and it is expected to reach the Saskatchewan border by the afternoon.

The area of precipitation will then get pushed northward Friday evening as a strong low pushes into the region from south of the border. The snowfall will begin to intensify in Northeastern Alberta, but the heaviest of the snow is expected in Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where upwards of 50cm could fall by the end of the weekend! Thankfully for Fort McMurrary and the surrounding area, only up to 10cm is expected, but there’s the possibility for locally higher amounts closer to the provincial border, where light snow could persist through the day Saturday.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7Pm on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Outside of this pocket of greater snowfall accumulation, most of the province can expect less than 5cm of snow thanks to how warm the ground still is. The only other exception will be in the higher elevations of the Rockies, where there is a possibility of a bit of additional snow on Saturday, along with maybe a bit of light snow that could fall in the Foothills in the evening.

Some strong wind gusts will be associated with the snowfall on Friday, with gusts expected to climb into the 60-80km/h range and the possibility that the odd gust could be as high as 90km/h. While this is not as strong as the gusts we saw last weekend, these winds could still be able further damage already weak trees, and potentially dislodge previously broken branches, in areas that were heavily impacted.

The rdps model showing Peak wind gusts through to Friday Night, courtesy of WeatherBell.

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First Accumulating Snowfall of the Season Could Impact Many Albertans' Thanksgiving Weekend Plans

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Thanksgiving is this weekend and despite the lovely warmth across most of Alberta that has led to daily high temperatures into the teens and low 20s, we are in for a major cool down that will also be met with the first accumulation of snow for much of the province.

While this seems early, it’s actually just a tad bit later than usually for some areas to only now be seeing their first snow of the season, which typically occurs in the final week of September or first week of October.

A strong low pressure system has already begun to impact much of Northern Alberta and into parts of Central Alberta with widespread rain. This rain will continue into tomorrow morning, at which point we’ll start to see some transitioning over to snow as cold Arctic air makes its way southward.

This switch over from rain to snow will gradually expand throughout the day and is expected to mostly impact the southern portions of Northern Alberta and into the Northern Rockies and Foothills by the late evening and into overnight hours.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 8pm on Friday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

As we move into early Saturday morning, most of the rain is expected to have changed to snow and it will spread southward through Central Alberta, along with temperatures approaching the freezing mark.

The area of snowfall will likely shrink starting late Saturday morning and through the afternoon as it continues tracking to the south. This will lead to little to no snow falling in the Southeast, while those in the Southwest could see a few centimetres.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 11am on Saturday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The snow will continue to dissipate into Saturday evening and pockets of light snow are expected to persist overnight and into Sunday morning in West Central and Southwestern Alberta.

This could be joined by an additional area of snowfall that would be making its way into the Southwestern Alberta from Montana Sunday morning, which could stick around throughout the day before the snow finally comes to an end in the evening.

It’s important to keep in mind that the first couple of snowfall events of the season can be particularly tough to forecast and come with a great deal of uncertainty. This will be the case for this weekend, especially with double-digit temperatures that have been leading up to the major cool down over the next couple of days.

Of course, the snow will melt on contact with the warm ground at first, but as more and more snow falls, it becomes more likely that accumulation will occur. The key will be if and when the snow does begin to stick, and how much snow will be left to fall after that point.

The steady snowfall in the Northern Rockies, including in Grande Cache, Hinton, and Jasper National Park, is expected to result in 10-20cm of accumulation, with greater amounts possible at higher elevations. Extending east and southeastward from this region, lesser amounts of snow could still build up, particularly in the Foothills.

The greatest uncertainty lies within towns and cities, where warm pavement will likely melt the majority of the snow. Still, there is the possibility of upwards of 5cm of wet snow sticking to the ground in both Edmonton and Calgary.

With this being the Thanksgiving weekend, many people will have plans to travel to spend time with their loved ones. Please give yourself extra time to get to your destinations this weekend and use extra caution on any snow-covered roads. With how pleasant the weather has been lately, it’s unlikely that many motorists have even considered putting on their winter tires.

The good news is that it is going to warm up again next week so any accumulated snow won’t last for long!

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Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Alberta & Saskatchewan Sunday with Risk of Large Hail and Damaging Winds

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Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the majority of Alberta and Saskatchewan today, and this includes the first real widespread risk that we’ve seen in close to two weeks.

This morning, there have already been some thunderstorms in parts of both provinces, but the activity has been more located in Central and Southern Saskatchewan. These storms have remained non-severe for the most part, but there was an area of severe storms that developed to the west of Moose Jaw and they have since weakened.

The ongoing morning storms should stay sub-severe, but there is a slight chance that one could surpass the threshold of becoming severe.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon that will be scattered across Central and Northern Alberta and into Central Saskatchewan. Most of these storms are expected to stay non-severe through the afternoon and evening, but there will be the possibility for isolated storms to reach severe levels. These isolated severe storms may produce some large hail that could be toonie-size or larger and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

As we move into the evening, a more widespread severe thunderstorm risk is expected in East Central and Northeastern Alberta, and extending slightly into Northern Saskatchewan. The environment here will be more supportive for severe thunderstorms across the region that could continue into the early hours of Monday, particularly along the provincial border. The storms in this region will also have the ability to create large hail and damaging wind gusts, but there is also the threat of heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding.

We will be monitoring today’s storms as they develop later and we will be sure to keep you updated if there are any significant severe threats.

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Strong Severe Thunderstorms Target Calgary and Surrounding Area Today with the Risk of Possibly Destructive Wind-Driven Hail

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Yesterday afternoon, we shared the Environment Canada thunderstorm outlook for today, which had a High Risk for severe weather today for parts of Central and Southern Alberta, including Calgary. That risk did not diminished overnight and we are still expecting to see some strong thunderstorms today.

We're already seeing some non-severe thunderstorms in parts of Central Alberta this morning. These storms should stay sub severe over the next few hours, but there is a slight chance that one could surpass the threshold of becoming severe.

More thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, popping up across much of the province, some of which may persist into the overnight hours. As far as the Calgary area is concerned, it's likely that severe storms will develop to the northwest of the city in the mid-to-late afternoon, around 3-5pm, which could long-lived and track southeast towards the Saskatchewan border through to the late evening.

Simulated reflectivity from the hrrr model at 5pm MdT, courtesy of weatherbell.

At this point, there is still a bit of disagreement between models when it comes to what kind of thunderstorms could develop today and it's most likely that we will see a mixture of individual supercells in the south and multicellular clusters of thunderstorms in Central Alberta.

The multicellular clusters of storms are expected to mostly have a strong wind risk, along with the possibility of some fairly large hail. Meanwhile, the supercell storms will come with the greatest threat of large hail, which could be bigger than golf balls, as well as damaging winds well above 100km/h. This could particularly be the case for the storms that form to the northwest of Calgary and track into Southern Alberta.

As with any severe thunderstorms in the Prairies, especially with supercells, there will a tornado risk today, however it's looking like the greatest threat today will be large hail and damaging straight-line winds.

Today's setup is actually looking a little reminiscent of the destructive hail storm that tracked through parts of Calgary in August 2024, with the possibility of large hail that could be driven by very strong winds hitting the city. If you live in the area outlined in orange on our forecast map, especially if you're in Calgary, you may want to take precautions in the event that a similar destructive hail storm does end up forming.

We will certainly be going live today and we will be covering the severe thunderstorm and tornado risk in Southern Ontario, as well. Please be sure to join us later at instantweather.ca/live!

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Strong Severe Thunderstorms with Tornado Risk Once Again Target Edmonton and Parts of Central & Northern Alberta Tuesday

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It has been a seemingly never-ending pattern of severe weather for Central and Northern Alberta lately and unfortunately, that pattern will continue today. We are once again looking at the possibility of strong severe thunderstorms that could impact parts of Central and Northern Alberta, including Edmonton, beginning this afternoon and continuing through the evening.

The environment will be favourable for the development of supercell thunderstorms today. There will be plenty support for these storms, with CAPE values exceeding 2000J/kg in some areas, along with a considerable amount of shear and moisture. A low that will move through the province this afternoon will then be the trigger that causes the storms to develop.

Thunderstorms are expected to fire up early this afternoon in the Foothills. From there, they will track eastward, into the most favourable environment by the late afternoon and continuing through the evening. The greatest severe threat will be in the 5-10pm timeframe and those in the Edmonton area could see severe weather in the window of 6-9pm.

As we get later into the evening, after around 10pm, the storms are expected to weaken as they gradually continue east towards the Saskatchewan border and most thunderstorm activity should end by midnight.

Hourly Precipitation at 5Pm MDt, courtesy of weatherbell.

The strong supercell storms this evening could have the potential to produce very large hail that could be as large as tennis balls, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, and very heavy rain. The rain will be a concern particularly in Edmonton, which is just inside the area at risk for the strongest storms, since there has been considerable flooding after every thunderstorm that has tracked through the city lately.

There will also be a widespread risk for severe thunderstorms that are expected to be slightly weaker, in an area that surrounds the highest risk. This covers Hinton, High Prairie, Slave Lake, Cold Lake, and Camrose, with Rocky Mountain House and Fort McMurray just inside the risk area.

The storms in this region will likely still be able to produce damaging wind gusts above 100km/h, but the hail associated with them is expected to be a bit smaller, maxing out at the size of a golf ball.

Beyond this region, there is a much more isolated severe risk in an area that covers Red Deer, Jasper, Grande Prairie, Peace River, and north to the Northwest Territories border.

It’s important to note that today’s thunderstorms will have a tornado risk associated with them, but this risk is the most significant for the area marked by hatching on our forecast map, where the strongest storms are expected. This includes Edmonton, Edson, Whitecourt, and Lac La Biche.

With the threat of tornadoes today, please make sure that you have a plan in place in the event that severe weather approaches your area. Make sure to have all of your devices charged and that you have more than one way to receive critical weather alerts.

It’s likely that we will be going live later this afternoon, as the storms start to strengthen, so be sure to tune in at instantweather.ca/live.

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Wildfire Smoke Could Hinder Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Threat for Edmonton and Parts of Central & Northern Alberta Saturday

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The risk for severe weather returns to Edmonton and parts of Central and Northern Alberta with the possibility of severe thunderstorms across the region beginning this afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours.

In yesterday’s thunderstorm outlook from Environment Canada, they had a High Risk for this region. That High Risk has since been downgraded to a Moderate Risk, likely due to the impact that wildfire smoke will have on the potential development of thunderstorms later today.

Smoke from wildfires in British Columbia and the US Pacific Northwest has been significantly impacting air quality at ground level across Alberta over the past few days. However, the presence of smoke higher up in the atmosphere can greatly influence our weather conditions.

Modelled Vertically Integrated Smoke at of 12pm MDT, Courtesy of WMI.

When we have thick smoke throughout the atmosphere, not as much sunlight is able to reach the ground and as a result, it end ups being a few degrees cooler at the surface than expected. A decrease in surface heating while the air aloft is able to heat up also greatly reduces the instability and creates a capping inversion that could block thunderstorm development.

Despite the smoke, there is still a chance that we could see some severe thunderstorms fire up today, but it is not a guarantee. Models are showing that a decent amount of instability could still be available, along with plenty of moisture and shear, to fuel thunderstorms if they are able to break through the cap.

Thunderstorm activity could initiate early this afternoon, particularly in the Foothills, and storms that develop are expected to gradually track northeastward through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours, with additional storms possibly popping up through this period.

Hourly Precipitation at 5Pm MDt, courtesy of weatherbell.

The storms that may end up forming today will have the potential to become severe across parts of Central and Northern Alberta, in the area in yellow on our forecast map. In this region, the storms may be able to produce large hail up to the size of tennis balls, damaging wind gusts above 100km/h, and heavy rain. The hatched area on the map, which includes Edmonton, Red Deer, Rocky Mountain House, and Edson, will also have an isolated tornado risk.

Today’s severe weather risk could end up being a bust as a result of the wildfire smoke. However, with Edmonton potentially in the bullseye with a tornado risk, we will certainly be keeping a close on how things come together this afternoon.

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Widespread Severe Thunderstorm Risk Across the Northern Prairies Thursday; Tornado Threat in Northern Saskatchewan

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Today, there will be the widespread potential for severe thunderstorms across Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and into parts of Northern Alberta. Meanwhile, most of the rest of the Prairies will be under a more isolated risk.

A low that is over Northern Alberta this morning will move into Saskatchewan this afternoon and its cold front will be the trigger for thunderstorm development. Although there won’t be a great deal of instability, with CAPE values below 1000J/kg for most of the region, there will be more than enough shear to still support thunderstorms once they form, especially for more southern areas.

We are already seeing some non-severe thunderstorms this morning in Northeastern Alberta and Northwestern Saskatchewan. It’s possible that one or two of these storms could become severe, especially if they can persist into the afternoon.

Hourly Precipitation at 7Pm MDT/CST, 8pm CDT , courtesy of weatherbell.

It’s during the afternoon that we are expecting to see additional development across the Northern regions of all three Prairie provinces, which will gradually track eastward with the low through the evening and overnight.

For the most part, we’re expecting that these will be garden variety severe thunderstorms across the region, with the main threat being strong wind gusts that could exceed 100km/h along with the possibility of up to toonie size hail and heavy rain.

There is, however, a slightly stronger severe risk in parts of Northern Saskatchewan and crossing the border into Alberta. This particular area, which includes Cold Lake, Meadow Lake, and Prince Albert, could potentially see storms that are capable of producing up to golf ball size hail, as well as an isolated tornado.

The presence of wildfire smoke in the atmosphere could certainly hinder thunderstorm development today, especially where the smoke is much thicker, closer to the Northwest Territories border. The good news is that we’re expecting today’s thunderstorms to be very moisture-laden, and there is also the possibility of widespread heavy rain not associated with thunderstorm activity. This will be beneficial for firefighting efforts across Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as long as no additional fires are ignited by lightning strikes.

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Dangerous Tornadic Supercells Capable of Massive Hail & Destructive Wind Gusts Possible Northeast of Edmonton Saturday; Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk Extends Across Alberta & Saskatchewan

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The week of daily severe weather risk in Alberta continues on Saturday, and much of Saskatchewan, with the greatest threat we’ve seen so far this week.

Not only are we looking at the possibility of strong severe thunderstorms across a considerable stretch of both Alberta and Saskatchewan today, but there is also the risk for some significantly strong storms to the east and northeast of Edmonton, in an area that includes Vegreville and St. Paul.

Today’s environment will be primed for the formation of strong supercell thunderstorms.

Models are showing that there will be an incredible amount of instability across the region today, with well over 3000J/kg of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) expected for the Edmonton area. CAPE values of this magnitude are very uncommon for areas this far north, which indicates how strong of a risk we are truly looking at.

Dew points in the upper teens to low 20s today will provide plenty of moisture. Combined with the significant amount of shear that’s expected through the atmosphere, supercell storms will be easily supported.

Overall, we’re looking at a very dangerous setup that would look more at home in the Great Plains of the United States, not in Central Alberta and Saskatchewan.

A low that is set to develop this afternoon, and its associated cold front, will be the trigger for today’s severe weather. The location of this low will be the key to where the very strong thunderstorms will end up impacting.

As it stands, it appears that the low will set up over Edmonton, which would bring the greatest severe threat to areas northeast and east of the city.

Future Surface weather map with the positions of highs, lows, and fronts displayed for 6pm MDT/CST on Saturday, courtesy of the national weather service.

There have already been some severe thunderstorms in Northern Alberta and Southeastern Saskatchewan this morning, but these will just be a precursor of what’s to come.

Additional storms could begin to initiate early this afternoon, mostly in the Foothills, but there could be some isolated development across Central Alberta and into Saskatchewan. As we progress through the afternoon, we are expecting to see more storms develop, all of which will move along a mostly northeastward trajectory.

The greatest severe threat will be through in the evening and into the overnight hours, as the storms encounter their most ideal environmental conditions. The strongest of these storms will likely impact areas to the northeast of Edmonton later in the evening, approximately from 10pm to midnight, give or take an hour.

Through the overnight hours, the storms will eventually weaken, but there will still be a slight severe risk that continues into the pre-dawn hours.

Hourly Precipitation at 11Pm MDT/CST, courtesy of weatherbell.

As we’ve mentioned, the area to the northeast of Edmonton is under a significant severe weather threat today. The storms that hit this region could potentially produce massive baseball size hail and destructive wind gusts that could be upwards of 130km/h, possibly even higher.

There is also a strong severe risk the covers a large portion of Central Alberta and Saskatchewan, that also extends into Northern parts of both provinces.

The entirety of the area under both the Strong and Significant severe risks today will also have the threat of tornadoes developing. The greatest risk for multiple, possibly strong, tornadoes, however, will be in that Significant risk as well as the surrounding area.

This could end up being a very dangerous day so it is crucial to have a plan in place in the event of tornado warning for your area. You’ll need to know where the best place to take shelter is: the most interior room of the lowest floor, away from any windows.

It’s also very important to have all of your devices charged and to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts.

We have already begun live streaming the severe weather ongoing in Southern Ontario and we will be extending our coverage to include Alberta and Saskatchewan once things start to fire up later. Be sure to join us as www.instantweather.ca/live!

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Edmonton Area in the Crosshairs for Strong Severe Thunderstorms Tuesday with Threat of Very Large Hail and Possible Tornadoes

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It’ll be yet another day with the threat of strong severe thunderstorms for parts of Alberta. Today’s risk will be along the Highway 43 corridor between Whitecourt and Edmonton, and throughout the surrounding area, including Edson, Drayton Valley, and Westlock.

There will be plenty of instability in the atmosphere across Central Alberta and into parts of Northern Alberta today, with upwards of 3000J/kg of CAPE being shown on weather models beginning this afternoon. Additionally, ample moisture and shear throughout the region will lead to all the necessary ingredients being in place for some strong severe thunderstorms to develop.

Today’s thunderstorms could possibly begin in the Foothills in the mid-to-late afternoon, but it’s more likely that storms will fire up in this area during the early evening. Once the isolated storms do start to develop, they are expected to rapidly strengthen into strong supercells, which will track mostly eastward across the province through the remainder of the evening and overnight.

Hourly Precipitation at 1Am MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

These severe thunderstorms are expected to reach the Edmonton area sometime in the late evening or shortly after midnight, around 11pm-2am. These thunderstorms could very likely maintain their strength up until this point, however there is also the possibility that the storms will weaken to the west, before hitting Edmonton. Regardless, as we progress overnight and into the pre-dawn hours, and the storms continue tracking eastwards, they are expected to weaken considerably and will likely dissipate before reaching the Saskatchewan border.

The greatest threat from the strong supercell thunderstorms today will be very large hail, which could end up being up to tennis ball size. There will also be the risk of damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, intense rainfall, and even the possibility of a tornado or two.

In the meantime, there will be a more isolated severe risk this afternoon and evening in Southeastern Alberta. The storms in this part of the province aren’t expected to be particularly strong, especially when compared to the storms further north, with the main concern being some strong wind gusts, small hail, and pockets of heavy rain.

Given that today’s strong severe thunderstorms will have tornado potential continuing after dark, especially in such a populated area, it’s crucial to ensure that you have all of your devices charged and that you have more than one way to receive critical alerts. We expect to be live-streaming today’s storms once they begin to develop, along with those in Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick, so be sure to tune in!

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Widespread Tornado and Large Hail Threat with Another Risk of Severe Thunderstorms in Alberta & Saskatchewan Saturday

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Following yesterday's widespread severe weather, in which multiple tornadoes were reported to have touched down in Central Saskatchewan, as well as one possibly touching down to the west of Edmonton, we're in for yet another day with the risk for strong severe thunderstorms.

For several days, weather models have been showing that the environment could be extremely unstable today, especially across much of Saskatchewan, which could result in a fairly significant severe weather outbreak. Working against this, however, is the likelihood that there could actually be too heat higher up in the atmosphere, which could create a strong capping inversion that would hinder thunderstorm development. This is expected to be the case for much of Southern Saskatchewan today, where there will be a more isolated severe risk. It's important to note that any storms that are able to develop in this region will probably be quite strong.

Shifting northward, the capping should be less of an issue in Central and Northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Across this large swath of the Prairies, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop much more readily in a favourable environment.

Although there are already some thunderstorms this morning in Central and Northern Alberta, the storms that we are most concerned about are expected to beginning developing early this afternoon in Western Alberta, which will track mostly eastward through the afternoon.

As these storms cross into Saskatchewan early this evening, they could strengthen considerably as they move through the most ideal environment. These thunderstorms are expected to maintain their strength as they cross Saskatchewan during the evening and into the overnight hours. As they approach the provincial border and cross into Western Manitoba, the storms are expected to weaken and then dissipate in the early morning hours.

At their strongest, the severe thunderstorms today could easily produce large golf ball to tennis ball size hail, damaging wind gusts up to and possibly exceeding 100km/h, and heavy rain. There will be a widespread risk of tornadoes today in the area outlined in yellow and even in Southern Saskatchewan if storms are able to form there, but the most significant risk will be in the orange region. An area of particular concern today will be around North Battleford, Saskatoon, and Prince Alberta.

This is looking like it could be another long day with a heightened severe weather threat across the Prairies. Given today’s widespread tornado risk, please ensure that you have all of your devices charged and that you have more than one way to receive critical alerts. We expect to be livestreaming today’s storms so be sure to tune in!

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Massive Tennis Ball Hail and Tornado Threat from Strong Severe Thunderstorms Across All Three Prairie Provinces Thursday

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Yesterday, two tornadoes have been confirmed to have touched near the Alberta-Saskatchewan border, south of Lloydminster. So far, no damage has been reported from the first tornado that began southwest of Paradise Valley, Alberta. The same can not be said for the second tornado, which tracked through Dillberry Lake Provincial Park, where it damaged trees, flipped a trailer, and caused minor injuries.

Unfortunately, this area will once again be at risk for tornadoes today, as we are looking at two particular regions in the Prairies where there could be strong severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. The first area of concern will be in Southwestern Manitoba and extending northward into the Parkland and Interlake Regions. The second area is further west, extending southeastward from Wainwright, through Kindersley, to the Moose Jaw and Regina area.

To start things off, we’ll take a look at the severe risk in Eastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. As discussed in yesterday’s forecast, last night’s storms did manage to track across Saskatchewan overnight and persist through to the daylight hours today. They weakened considerably after crossing the Manitoba border and have gradually dissipated this morning.

Despite the lingering storms, the same low and frontal boundary setup that triggered yesterday’s tornadoes is positioned over Southern Saskatchewan and it will continue tracking eastward today.

Future Surface weather map with the positions of highs, lows, and fronts displayed for 12pm cst/1pm CDT on Thursday, courtesy of the national weather service.

Temperatures will climb into the mid-to-upper 20s and dewpoints into the low 20s across much of Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba today, meaning there will be plenty of moisture. The environment will also be quite unstable, with CAPE values possibly as high as 3000J/kg. Along with a decent amount of shear, all of the ingredients will be in place for strong severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon as the low tracks through the region.

Thunderstorms could start to develop in the early afternoon in Southeastern Saskatchewan, along the warm and occluded fronts. However it’s looking more likely that storm initiation will occur on the other side of the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border in the mid-afternoon.

Simulated reflectivity at 3pm CdT, courtesy of weatherbell.

Given the extensive north-south orientation of the warm and occluded fronts, it’s possible that there could be widespread severe thunderstorm development that extends northwards from the international border to north of Flin Flon. While there is this large severe risk, the strongest severe thunderstorms are expected to remain further south.

The storms in Southern Manitoba are expected to strengthen quickly once they develop, especially if they interact with any lingering outflow boundaries from this mornings thunderstorms. If this were to happen, we could see some fairly explosive development in the region. There could be a few supercell storms, but it’s mostly looking like the storms will be multicellular in nature.

As the front slowly continues to track eastward and crosses Manitoba through the afternoon and evening, so too will the storms. In fact, these slow moving, moisture-laden storms could dump a lot of rain over an area that has already been dealing with major flooding issues, so be prepared.

Other than exacerbating the flooding concerns, if things really ramp up this afternoon and evening, the strong severe thunderstorms could potentially produce some massive hail today, with estimates of hail as large as tennis balls being possible. Damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h are also likely with these strong storms, and there will also be a threat of tornadoes if we end up seeing some of that explosive development.

The severe weather threat could possibly move into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley in the evening, but most models are showing the storms tracking southeastward into the States. The possibility of storms in this region is still a bit questionable, so we’re forecasting a widespread risk to the east of the area of strongest storms.

Simulated reflectivity, with added storm motion, at 7pm CdT, courtesy of weatherbell.

While storms are impacting Southern Manitoba, there will also be the risk of some severe thunderstorms further west.

A new low has been forming over Southern Alberta and it could trigger thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, but it’s looking like a boom or bust situation in this region. There will be plenty of moisture and a decent amount of instability, but there could actually be too much shear for thunderstorms to survive.

If storms are able to develop today and they aren’t over-sheared, they will likely be supercells that could start up in Central Alberta and track southeastward across West Central and Southwestern Saskatchewan. Models that are showing thunderstorm development are suggesting that these could end up being long-lived storms again, which could continue into the overnight and early morning hours as they approach the Montana border.

total Precipitation as of 3pm MDT/CST shows possible tracks of long-lived thunderstorms, courtesy of weatherbell.

The greatest risk of strong severe thunderstorms in Alberta and Western Saskatchewan today will exist from Wainwright to Moose Jaw and if these strong storms do develop, it could be a similar situation as yesterday. Very large hail, that could be tennis ball size or larger, would once again be the main severe threat. Damaging wind gusts well in excess of 100km/h will also be possible and there will be the threat of tornadoes, too.

Beyond the two areas we’ve highlighted as having the strongest severe thunderstorms today, there will also be a widespread severe risk across much of the Southern Prairies as a result of a favourable environmental conditions.

Shortly after 10:30am local time, Environment Canada has issued a Yellow Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of Central and Southern Alberta. Similar Watches will likely be issued in Saskatchewan and Manitoba in the coming hours.

As always, we will be monitoring today’s thunderstorm development very closely. We intend on live streaming today’s storms, as well as the risk in Southern Ontario, so please be sure to tune in and stay safe!

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Threat of Tennis Ball Hail, Damaging Winds, and Tornadoes on Wednesday as Strong Severe Thunderstorms Take Aim at Parts of Alberta & Saskatchewan

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After a bit of a break yesterday, severe weather returns today to parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. There is a widespread risk of severe thunderstorms across large swaths of both provinces today, however there is a threat of particularly strong severe thunderstorms for parts of Eastern Alberta and Western Saskatchewan.

The environment will be quite unstable throughout the region today, with CAPE values expected to climb as high as 2500J/kg. Combined with plenty of moisture and a considerable amount of shear, conditions will be favourable for thunderstorm development.

Some storms have already begun this morning to the northwest of Lac la Biche, and the bulk of today’s storms are expected to initiate in the Alberta Foothills later this morning and into the early afternoon. The storms will develop along a warm front that’s associated with a low which will move into Northern Alberta from British Columbia. It’s expected that today’s thunderstorms will start off as small individual storms, but they should quickly grow and strengthen as the track eastward across Alberta and reach the Saskatchewan border by the late afternoon.

Hourly Precipitation at 6pm MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

The strongest storms of the day are expected to occur during the late afternoon and into the evening, impacting parts of Eastern Alberta approaching the Saskatchewan border and extending eastward as far as Saskatoon. The main risks from these storms will be up to tennis ball sized hail and very damaging wind gusts that could be upwards of 120km/h, however, this area will also have the threat of tornadoes.

As we progress later into the evening and overnight, the storms will continue to track east across Saskatchewan, but they are expected to have weakened slightly. The thunderstorms could end up persisting straight through the night and approach the Manitoba border around sunrise tomorrow.

Simulated reflectivity at 6Am CST, courtesy of weatherbell.

There is a bit of uncertainty associated with today’s thunderstorm risk for Southern Alberta. A few weather models are showing little to no thunderstorm activity in this area and this potential lack of development could be due to the presence of smoke from wildfires in British Columbia. Regardless, the environment in this region will still be primed for thunderstorm development, which is why we have opted to forecast a widespread risk for this region.

Environment Canada has already issued Yellow and Orange level Severe Thunderstorm Watches for much of Central and Southern Alberta and these will likely be extended into Saskatchewan in the coming hours. We will be monitoring today’s thunderstorm development very closely and we will possibly go live later on so be sure to stay tuned!

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Widespread Strong Severe Thunderstorm Risk Across the Prairies Sunday with Tornado Threat in Southwestern Manitoba

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It’s another day with the possibility of severe weather across the Prairies. Today’s risk extends eastward from Southern Alberta through Central Saskatchewan and throughout most of Central and Southern Manitoba.

There are going to be two areas where we will be watching for thunderstorm development later today. The first being in Southern Alberta and the second in Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba.

Starting in Alberta, the combination of heat and moisture from the south, along with considerable instability, will create the ideal environment for severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The storms are expected to be supercells or multicellular that would develop in the Southern Foothills.

As the storms track eastward beyond the Foothills, they should become severe and possibly long-tracked thunderstorms. Looking at weather models, it appears as though things will strengthen to the east of Calgary, but there will still be an isolated severe risk for the City and the crowds at the Stampede.

Simulated reflectivity at 6pm MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

The thunderstorms that develop in Southern Alberta this afternoon could very well maintain their strength and continue tracking eastward straight across Central Saskatchewan through the late evening and into the overnight hours. There is a bit of a question mark with this, with some models showing this possibility while others show nothing impacting Saskatchewan.

Regardless, the thunderstorms that do end up developing in this region could be quite strong and have the potential to create very large hail that could possibly be as big as tennis balls, as well as damaging wind gusts in excess of 100km/h.

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The secondary area of severe threat for today will exist in Southeastern Saskatchewan and across much of Southern and Central Manitoba.

The development of storms in this region will be courtesy of a cold front from a low pressure system that will move into the region this afternoon. The environment in this area will already be primed with substantial instability (CAPE values upwards of 3000J/kg) and a significant amount of vertical shear so thunderstorms will likely be quite strong, especially in Southwestern Manitoba.

Thunderstorm development in this part of the Prairies could kick off later this afternoon/early evening in deep Southeastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba. These storms could then intensify quickly as they track east-northeastward across Southern Manitoba throughout the evening and overnight.

Simulated reflectivity at 9pm CDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

As with to the west, the severe thunderstorms that impact Southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba could also be quite strong. The entire region could experience large hail and damaging wind gusts, but in Southwestern Manitoba, where the strongest storms will likely hit, there could be hail as large as tennis balls. There is also the risk of tornado development throughout the evening that extends from Southeastern Saskatchewan to east of Winnipeg and northward into the Parkland and Interlake Regions.

We will be monitoring today’s thunderstorm development very closely and be sure to tune in later when we go live!

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Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan Today with Slight Risk of a Tornado

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Severe thunderstorms are going to be likely across Southern Alberta and into parts of Central Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan today. A cold front associated with the low pressure system that’s responsible for the heavy rainfall in Central Alberta will be the trigger for thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid-20s, but dewpoints are expected to be fairly low, barely reaching mid-teens for most of Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan. This lack of moisture could hamper thunderstorm development, however some moisture from the north could make its way into the region later today, which would make up for the lower dewpoints.

Simulated reflectivity at 3pm MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this afternoon in the Foothills as individual cells. These storms will likely be severe for most of the region, but there is a more isolated severe risk closer to the low pressure center, in the Edmonton area and westward.

As the storms progress eastward through the afternoon and evening, they are expected to eventually merge into a line. This transition to a linear storm mode will bring a more widespread severe risk across Southeastern Alberta and eventually into Southwestern Saskatchewan later in the evening (around 8-10pm).

The severe risk does not extend too far eastward into Saskatchewan because the storms will weaken later in the evening. This will lead to a more isolated threat into the Swift Current area by around midnight before it’s expected that the storms become non-severe for the rest of the overnight period.

Simulated reflectivity at 9pm MDT, courtesy of weatherbell.

Across most of Southern Alberta and stretching into parts of Central Alberta, including Red Deer, and Southwestern Saskatchewan is where there is the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms today. In this region, the main severe weather threats will be strong wind gusts above 100km/h and large hail that could be as big as ping pong balls. There is also a small risk of a tornado today, but that will be very conditional on there being enough moisture moving into this area from the north ahead of the thunderstorm development.

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Another Soggy Weekend for Central Alberta as we Welcome Summer with a Widespread 25-100mm of Rain

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It’s been a very wet few weeks, which started off during the last weekend of May when over 75mm of rain fell across a significant swath of Central and Southern Alberta. This rainy trend will continue this weekend, as we welcome the first day of summer on Sunday, and by Monday morning, some areas could once again receive up to 100mm of rain.

Rain will begin to fall in parts of West Central Alberta Friday evening and overnight as a low pressure system from British Columbia starts to move into the province. Through Saturday morning, the rain will gradually spread east and should reach the Saskatchewan border during the early afternoon.

Once the rain sets up over Central Alberta and into parts of Northern Alberta, the system is expected to stall and bring continuous rain through to Sunday evening. At that point, the system will start to break down and the rain will taper off overnight Sunday and through Monday morning. It’s likely that a bit of rain will spread into Southeastern Alberta Monday morning before it completely dissipates by the afternoon.

The RDPS model showing precipitation type and intensity at 5AM MDT on Sunday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

By the time the rain comes to an end Monday afternoon, more than 25mm of rain is expected to have fallen over much of Central Alberta and into Northern Alberta. Areas to the east of Edson will likely receive 50-75mm, while the City of Edmonton and eastward could see upwards of 100mm of rain.

The heaviest rain will fall at an average of 3-5mm/hr throughout the weekend, but there could possibly be pockets of intense rain from embedded thunderstorms, which could drive the rainfall totals beyond 100mm locally.

Considering how much rain we’ve already seen this month that has kept the ground fairly saturated, this much additional rainfall will very likely lead to localized flooding, especially near bodies of water. Please be sure to avoid any moving water for the next few days and if you come across a flooded roadway, do not attempt to drive through. Turn around, don’t drown.

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Strong Winds and Timbit Sized Hail Possible with Widespread Risk of Severe Thunderstorms in Southern Alberta & Saskatchewan Tuesday

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It’s looking like it’ll be an active day for some parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan today. A low pressure system from Southern British Columbia will track southeastward through Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan today, which will trigger the development of thunderstorms across the region.

Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid-20s, with dewpoints possibly into the mid-teens, across Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, which should help fuel thunderstorm development. There will be a modest amount of CAPE in the region, with weather models showing upwards of 1000J/kg for some areas. While this is not a great deal of instability, the combination of shear and a mechanism for lift will be enough for scattered thunderstorms to develop across the region.

Simulated reflectivity at 2pm, courtesy of weatherbell.

Non-severe thunderstorms have already developed this morning in Central Alberta. As the low continues tracking southeast into Southern Alberta, so too will the thunderstorms and starting in the early afternoon, it’s likely that the storms that develop will become severe.

The bulk of the thunderstorm activity is expected to make its way into Southern Saskatchewan later in the afternoon, around 3-5pm. Behind the initial cluster of storms in this area, additional storms are expected to develop to the west, in Southern Alberta. Most of these storms will likely be severe, but there is a more isolated severe risk that will extend eastward across much of the rest of Southern Saskatchewan.

The thunderstorms will gradually weaken through the evening as they continue tracking into Montana and most of the storms should cross the international border by midnight. However, there is a chance that some storms could linger in Southern Saskatchewan into the early morning hours.

Simulated reflectivity at 6pm, courtesy of weatherbell.

An area that stretches from northwest of Calgary southeastward into Southwestern Saskatchewan, shown in yellow on our forecast map, is where there is the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms today. Across this region, the main threat from thunderstorms today will be strong wind gusts in excess of 100km/h, however there is also the threat that these storms could produce large hail that could be as large as Timbits and maybe even as large as golf balls. Given that at least one tornado is confirmed to have touched down in Northern Alberta from this system last night, the possibility of additional tornadoes today can not be ruled out.

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Soaking Rains Will Mark the End of May and Start of June Across Most of Alberta, More Than 100mm Possible Over Four Days

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It’s been a scorcher of a week for parts of Alberta and it’s felt more like summer thanks to temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 30s, which is 10-20°C above seasonal, depending on the location. Now, the upper level ridge responsible for the heat is shifting eastward and it will be replaced by more moderate temperatures across the province.

Alongside these cooler temperatures, we are also looking at several days of much-needed rain that is expected to fall over the majority of Alberta. Unfortunately, it’s looking like the heavy rain won’t make it into Northwestern Alberta so those in this region will have to make do with what falls on Friday and into early Saturday.

Patchy areas of light and moderate rainfall will start to make its way into Southern Alberta from the States on Saturday morning from a low pressure system over Montana. The low will gradually track north towards the Saskatchewan border through the day and with it, the rain will also spread northwards. Rain will also cross from Saskatchewan into later in the day to create one large area of rainfall that covers much of the eastern half of the province by Sunday morning.

The ECMWF model showing precipitation type and intensity at 7AM MT on Sunday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The low pressure center should be located over Southwestern Saskatchewan before sunrise on Sunday. This is when the low is expected to strengthen, which will lead to heavier rain falling across Eastern Alberta. The system will slowly continue tracking north throughout Sunday, which will bring the rain up to the Northwest Territories border by the evening.

On Saturday alone, at least 10mm of rain is expected fall across the eastern half of the province and conservatively, up to 50mm could be possible in parts of East Central and Northeastern Alberta.

The ECMWF model showing total precipitation over 24 hours up to 12am MT Monday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The rain will continue to fall into Monday, with the continuation of heavy rain as well. However, the system will begin to fall apart in the afternoon and the rain will end for most of Northeastern Alberta.

The rain will continue to fall in East Central and Southern Alberta throughout the day, but there could be breaks in the rainfall, as well as periods of heavy rain. These opposite ends of the spectrum make the rainfall totals on Monday a bit tougher to forecast.

Once again, at least 10mm of rain is expected to fall over a significant area over the course of Monday. Overall, not as much rain is expected to fall on Monday than on Sunday, but some areas could still see up to 40mm of rain by the end of the day.

The ECMWF model showing total precipitation over 24 hours up to 12am MT Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Going into Tuesday, there is still expected to be some pockets of heavier rain that will continue during the morning. However, the remaining rain will gradually taper off through the day, ending by Wednesday morning.

By the time the rain comes to an end Wednesday morning, more than 50mm of rain is expected to have fallen over a large portion of Alberta. Along the Highway 2 corridor and extending north of Edmonton, 75-100mm of rain is expected to fall and potentially over 100mm locally. The heaviest rain will fall at an average of 3-5mm/hr, but there could possibly be pockets of intense rain falling at 10-15mm/hr, which could really drive these totals up.

Seeing as this is an event that will occur multiple days, it’s possible that there could be a shift in where the rain ends up falling between the time that this forecast is posted (Friday evening) and Monday, in particular. We will be watching how the system sets up and if there are any major changes, we’ll be sure to keep you updated! Nonetheless, this is expected to make a huge impact to the fire danger across much of Alberta.

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Real Taste of Summer for Alberta & Saskatchewan as Temperatures Soar into the 30s with Severe Thunderstorm Risk

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It was only a little over a week ago that we had snow falling across parts of the Prairies. Now, Mother Nature is treating us to some weather whiplash and a true taste of summer, with temperatures climbing into the 30s in a heat wave that begins today and continues through the week.

This extended period heat is courtesy of a strong upper level ridge in the jet stream which will allow much warmer air from the States to surge northward. This ridge is expected to gradually extend eastward over the course of the week, which will then bring the heat into Manitoba and possibly deliver some relief in Eastern Alberta.

Along with the heat today, there will be the risk for severe thunderstorms to develop in Southern Alberta and Southwestern Saskatchewan.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible for Southern Alberta throughout the afternoon, but the greatest risk of severe weather begins with storms that develop later in the afternoon and early evening in both provinces, as well as in Montana. Storms that form during this time will likely be severe as they track northwestward, but as we get later into the evening and overnight hours, they should weaken and become non-severe.

Strong wind gusts in excess of 100km/h are the main threat from today’s severe thunderstorms, but there will also be a possibility of up to nickel-sized hail. There is a chance that there might be enough capping in the atmosphere today that storms could struggle to develop so we will certainly be keeping a close watch on how things shape up over the coming hours.

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A One-Two Punch of Winter Weather Could Bring Up to 15cm of Snow to Much of Central & Southern Alberta This Week

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As is to be expected for April in Alberta, winter’s grip isn’t quite ready to let go, despite some mild, spring-like conditions having already made brief appearances.

This week, two separate systems will bring fresh snow across Central and Southern Alberta, and into parts of Northern Alberta. Even though these two systems will originate from different places, the tail end of the first system will meld into the leading edge of the second. As a result, we have opted to create a single forecast for both storms.

The snow will begin to fall early Tuesday morning in Jasper National Park and into the Grande Cache area, where it will fairly light and scattered for most of the day. Some pockets snow could stretch east towards Edson and Drayton Valley during the morning, but it is expected to be mixed with rain, which will limit any accumulating snow.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6Am MT on Tuesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

During the evening is when we expect to really start to see precipitation pushing eastward across the province. As with the possibility of this in the morning, the precipitation will fall as rain initially, since it will be above freezing, but it will change over to snow overnight as the temperatures fall.

This won’t be a very wide band of precipitation, impacting the southern extent of Northern Alberta as far north as Slave Lake. A shift in the track since Sunday afternoon means that the bulk of this snow is now expected to stay north of Edmonton. The band of snow will settle over this region overnight and through to Wednesday afternoon.

The steady light to moderate snowfall during this period will result in 5-15cm of accumulation across much of the impacted region, with up to 25cm possible in the Grande Cache area as a result of the prolonged snow beginning on Tuesday.

The ECMWF model showing precipitation type and intensity at 1pm MT on Wednesday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

In the late afternoon, snow from the second system will start to make its way into the Southern Rockies from the southwest. Meanwhile the band of snow to the north will begin to sink southward. These two areas of snow will combine, leading to one large area of snowfall developing over most of Central and Southern Alberta in the late evening.

This large region of snowfall will maintain its position over the region into Thursday morning. Then in the afternoon, the snow will start to gradually taper off as the entire system continues to track eastward across the Prairies. The snow is expected to completely exit the province by midnight.

The rdps model showing precipitation type and intensity at 6Am MT on Thursday, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The combination of these two systems, which will impact different parts of the province, means that snow will end up accumulating over a considerable portion of Alberta.

As previously mentioned, the first system is expected to bring 5-15cm to parts of Northern Alberta, while the Grande Cache area may see up to 25cm. The amount of snow that falls in this part of the province will be very dependent on when the transition from rain to snow occurs Tuesday night; a delayed shift would limit how much snow ends up falling.

As far as the remnants of the first system merging with the second are concerned, the steady rate of snowfall will also lead to 5-15cm of snow falling over the majority of Central and Southern Alberta. There are a couple of exceptions, though.

It’s looking likely that before the band of snow impacting Northern Alberta starts to track southward Wednesday evening, the snow might taper off slightly in the east. This would reduce the amount of snow that accumulates in a stretch from Edmonton to Lloydminster.

There is also possibility that there could be some rain falling instead of snow in the Southeast corner of the province during the early morning hours of Thursday, which would also greatly reduce the amount of accumulating snow. However, there is still some disagreement between weather models on whether this occurs. Nonetheless, these two possibilities are reflected on our forecast map as areas that could receive less than 5cm.

It’s also worth noting that the snow could be heavy at times in eastern parts of Central and Southern Alberta as the second system hits the region. Some weather models are showing that this could lead to some areas receiving over 15cm of snow. While this is a possibility on a local scale, the snow in this region is expected to melt on contact with the warm ground at first, before it eventually starts to stick. This should therefore keep accumulations below the 15cm mark.

Since the arrival of the second system is still 48 hours away from when this forecast is originally being posted (on Monday evening), it is possible that we could see some changes in its track and the amount of snow it could bring. We will continue to monitor the situation and have an updated forecast if there are any significant changes.

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